Issue № 83. December 2020

Critical Analysis of Econometrics

PhD applicant, School of Public Administration, Lomonosov Moscow state University, Moscow, Russian Federation.
E-mail: parfenov.denis@gmail.com

The article is devoted to econometric models used for studying economic security. The aim of the article is to identify whether econometric models is reliable and corresponds to a new economic situation. This study analyzes the views of Australian, American, and European scientists on the use of econometrics in economic forecasting, calculating statistical data using econometric models, and the impact of the results on further economic development. The essence of economic security is determined by the state of the economy and the system of state administration, which guarantees the protection of national sovereignty and integrity, the priority of social sectors development under various conditions of the country development. Examples of how statistical data can be distorted before they are applied to calculations of econometric models are given within the specifics of individual economic sectors and sub-sectors. It is concluded that the results of calculations of econometric models do not reflect real data, and there is a large number of errors in the calculations, which is why not all problems of economic security can be solved using the econometric approach. Imperfect institutional support for economic security policy, inconsistent strategic planning documents, and the lack of a scenario structure for the country development and its regions require the mandatory use of qualitative analysis and assessment of economic security. In new conditions associated with the emergence of unavoidable force, the system of state administration in the field of economic security should be based on the application of qualitative analysis and assessment, provide a proactive response to risks to the sustainable development of the Russian Federation, to threats to security in the economy and social sphere. To solve such a management problem, it is necessary to update the holistic knowledge about the complex methods of the Russian Federation development in the aspect of economic security. That is why it is necessary to search for new scientific and methodological approaches to improving analytical methods for studying structured and, at the same time, problem-oriented data on various aspects of ensuring the country's economic security.

Keywords

Econometrics, econometric models, economic security, quantitative methods in economics, statistical data, adaptive models of economic forecasting.

DOI: 10.24411/2070-1381-2020-10114