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Issue № 75. August 2019
Efficiency of the Agricultural Resources Use in Russia and in the World
Nikolay Y. Klyukin, Vladimir A. Gutnikov
Nikolay Y. Klyukin — Scientific Secretary, Central Research and Project Institute, Ministry of Building and Housing-Communal Services of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation. E-mail: nkljukin@gmail.com
Vladimir A. Gutnikov — PhD, Deputy Director on the Advanced and Educational Study, Central Research and Project Institute, Ministry of Building and Housing-Communal Services of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation. E-mail: lomonosov25@rambler.ru
Forecasting the population of the region, the country is the basis of long-term state planning of needs and opportunities not only of the agricultural complex, but also of other economy sectors and scientific and technical development.
The paper proposes a method of assessing the potential population of the region, in this case the Russian Federation, based on the capabilities of the agricultural complex, including the production of basic grains and oilseeds, meat and fish, using available statistics. On the basis of the model developed by the authors, which is based on a system of linear multiple regression equations, it is shown that the potential production of food in the Russian Federation is sufficient to feed the population of about 700 million people. Modeling of the potential population is carried out on the basis of the following parameters: the area of arable land, the area of agricultural land equipped for irrigation, specific doses of mineral fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium), the production of basic crops (spring and winter wheat, barley (winter and spring), beans, buckwheat, corn, millet, oats, rice, rye (winter and spring), sesame, sisal, sorghum and triticale) and oilseeds (soy and sunflower), production of oilseed meal, and also production of all types of meat (beef, pork, poultry and other meat). To develop and verify the model, available statistical data on countries and regions by agricultural land areas, crops and population from 1961 to 2016 were used.
Keywords
Agro-industrial potential of the Russian Federation, agro-sphere, agriculture, forecast, modeling, dynamics, arable lands, countries of the former USSR.
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