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Issue № 73. April 2019

Demographic Determinants of “Migration Crisis” in EU

Yulia A. Siluyanova

Postgraduate student, School of Public Administration, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation.
E-mail: Zernovaju@gmail.com

This article analyzes the assumptions that affect migration flows and summarizes the historical approaches to the patterns that form migration flows, as well as their evolution. We included in the model various economic and demographic variables that affect migration processes and discovered their impact on the global migration situation. Methods of statistical analysis, such as factor analysis by the main component method, regression analysis, cluster analysis are used. The study has revealed important patterns that explain the current state of global migration flows and stocks. A hypothesis that the contribution of demographic factors to migration processes is now underestimated has been confirmed. When we included them in the model, it became evident, that the concept of "crisis" in this context is not applicable. The current situation with migrants is not a crisis phenomenon, it has naturally formed under the influence of significant trends towards a change in the type of population reproduction. In addition, the changes are still ongoing and trends remain. In this regard, it is appropriate to talk about a new demographic transition. This new global transition turns the world into a unified system of "communicating vessels."

Keywords

Demography, migration, migration crisis, demographic transition, demographic revolution, factor analysis, multiple regression model, cluster analysis, principal component method

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