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Issue № 67. April 2018

N. Kondratiev’s Scientific Heritage as a Basis for Forecasting the Global Economic Trends of the 21st Century

Alena O. Biankina, Nikolai V. Lyasnikov

Alena O. Biankina — Ph.D., Rector, Institute of Social Sciences (International Relations, Management and Law), Moscow, Russian Federation.
E-mail: info5@socius.ru

Nikolai V. Lyasnikov — D.Sc., Professor, leading researcher, Market Economy Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation.
E-mail: acadra@yandex.ru

In the conditions of economic and social turbulence, the urgency of issues related to forecasting macroeconomic dynamics is steadily increasing. N.D. Kondratiev was one of the first to substantiate the hypothesis that the development of the economy is cyclical, and its transition from the upward phase to recession is natural. This pattern can be used to construct forecasts, taking into account that each subsequent large economic cycle is shorter than the previous one. The purpose of the article is to review the main aspects of the problem of economic forecasting that are touched upon in the writings of N.D. Kondratiev, as well as the rationale for the expediency of using his works in modern conditions. The article analyzes the scientific legacy of the Soviet scientist, and presents a review of the problems of his scientific views’ reflection in the ongoing research. The current state of the global economy is characterized by very high levels of innovative activity — and this is a key characteristic of the new socio-economic structure, the post-industrial one. Within this framework, the main resource is knowledge, and the most valuable capital is intellectual capital. Therefore, taking into account the basic ideas of N.D. Kondratiev regarding the foresight of macroeconomic dynamics, the greatest attention should be paid to those events and phenomena that have not yet occurred, but which can have a strong impact on socio-economic processes (what we now call “joker” events - in the words of Kondratiev himself, it is not the phenomenon itself that is important, but the scale of its manifestation).

Keywords

Kondratiev, scientific heritage, economic forecasting, post-industrialism, innovations, knowledge, intellectual capital, large cycles, theory of foresight.

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