Archive
2022 90 91 92      
2021 84 85 86 87 88 89
2020 78 79 80 81 82 83
2019 72 73 74 75 76 77
2018 66 67 68 69 70 71
2017 60 61 62 63 64 65
2016 54 55 56 57 58 59
2015 48 49 50 51 52 53
2014 42 43 44 45 46 47
2013 36 37 38 39 40 41
News
Submit your article
Newsletter


Issue № 35. December 2012

Comparative Analysis of Modern Demographic Forecast Models

Alexander N. Suchkov

Graduate student, School of Public Administration, Lomonosov Moscow State University.
E-mail:
invizor@gmail.com

Demographic process modeling is an important and topical problem. In particular, on account of the demographic crisis in Russia it is important to predict population, age and ethnic composition of the country. To predict population different models are used with different input data. The following data may be used: history of population, data on demographic processes (fertility, mortality, migration) or more detailed data (nuptiality, education, income). In this article the author presents a comparative analysis of different models and draws conclusions about their efficiency and applicability in specific cases.

Keywords

Demographic models, demographic potential, stable population, the Earth’s population, imitation model, demographic senility.

Comments:
No material published in this journal may be reproduced in print or in electronic form without a link to "E-journal. Public Administrarion".
119991, Room A-710, Shuvalovskiy building, Lomonosov Moscow State University
(27/4, Lomonosovskiy Avenue); phone: +7 (495) 930-85-71
Copyright © 2015 SPA MSU


Яндекс.Метрика